AZ draw odds

[Mel Carter]

I'm thinking of putting in next year for a rifle cow tag in unit #10. It's fairly close to my dads place, and I can probably just head out from there. I looked at the AZ website, but can't find where the draw odds would be at.

I see that for an Anterless tag, they issue about 700 tags for each hunt dates.

Anyone know the draw odds for this unit, and how the population is looking to be able to bag a cow elk.

Thanks,

 

[DAWG]

AZ draw odds are kind of hard to figure, as there are bonus points, used to be a 10% nonresident cap, next year, they will do something else to maintain resident opportunity to make up for it. Anyway, in the back of the regulation booklet (you can download it), they will tell you the number of first and second choice applicants. Just got back from 10 last, an awesome bull hunt. Not as many elk as some places, but a high percentage of bulls. I am happy with my bull, a 9 x 7. A good chunk of the northern Boquilias part was closed to vehicle access, details are available on thw AZ website. I would not hesitate to apply for it again for either a bull or cow (now that my points are zeroed out), unless they raise tag prices too high next year. That is one thing I hate about points. You can put something with better draw odds in for a bit, but once you get more, you have to hold out for something good rather than burn them on an easier draw.

 

[havotec]

Mel, I have the regs right here beside me. There are a few different hunts...
numbers are "getting a tag/success"
Rifle
Bull
Nov. 10%/46%
Sept 0% (yes that is want it states..)/80%

Cow
Nov. 50%/29%
Oct. 44%/29%

Archery
Bull 8%/62%
Cow 100%/12%

 

[Mel Carter]

havotec,
Thanks for posting those numbers. Actually, getting a bull tag has better odd then I thought it would. Now I just have to decided if I want to put in for a cow or a bull.

Thanks again.

 

[wmidbrook]

I don't know if this is fully correct or not, but I think the odds published for your chances to draw are for the person with the "average number of points" who applied for that unit.

The gal I talked to @ AZ's fish and game dept explained it to me that way a couple years back--but, I may have misinterpreted her explanation.

It would be good if someone who has confirmation of this could tell us exactly how that works or if they have odds tables like Utah where you can look up odds based on the number of points the applicant has.

 

[MEF]

Go for the bull, Mel!

Mike

 

[havotec]

Mel, I just moved back to Arizona so if you are interested in a hunting partner when you put in let me for tags bull or cow let me know.

 

[Coues]

The unit 10 bull tag is one of the most coveted in the country. It might be 10% draw rate, but the majority of those 10% have been putting in for that hunt year after year.

If you just want to hunt elk, put the bull tag first choice, then the early cow tag second.

 

[DAWG]

Bottom line, AZ draw odds are really hard to figure, with bonus points, nonresident restrictions and changes to that, etc.. All that will change again next year too. Plus quotas change year to year too. The % listed are rounded to the nearest whole number, so 0 means less than 0.5%. But last year there were 20 tags for the early bull, so the early hunt had much better odds this year, with 50 + 11 extra tags =61. Next year, they will likely have to reduce tag numbers to make up for the extra ones this year. Just pick the one you want most with your first choice, and be more realistic on your second choice.

Mel, by the way, saw your entry posted on another site come up the same day as mine. Awesome California buck. I guess we are not supposed to post anywhere else or I would put my AZ bull pictures here too, Eric.