BIG GAME TAG DRAWINGS ­ jim matthews column ­ 28may08

[suavegato]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tmoniz @ Jun 2 2008, 01:36 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

You're too sensitive Suave and misunderstand a person's wording.
And the one that Flames.
Not me.
I can come into a discussion whenever I want and voice my opinion.
You answered part of your question about the tag numbers. Population dictates the number af tags available.
So the system has to be designed fairly to distribute those tags.
Not everyone will get that precious tag. Oh well.

If you keep throwing in concessions then you convolute a simple and fair system.
That's my take on it.
Everybody gets a shot at a tag of some sort.
How do you say it?

The luck of the draw?[/b]

As i've said, let's try NOT to make this personal, try and stick to the topic lest this thread get shut down or censored like so many others...
Yes, everyone has a shot, but not a “fair shot” in some of our opinions… How is it “fair” that those who have put in since 2002 and ONLY those who have put in since 2002 get a shot at 90% of the tags, while everyone else, only gets a shot at 10% of the tags? I’m a max point holder and I can even see that it’s inequitable… We understand that there aren’t enough animals for everyone to get one, but shouldn’t everyone have a fair shot at the ones that will be taken?

I think that those who are diligent & persistent and put in for years should have a better chance, but the way it is now, there is virtually no chance for anyone but the max point holders… there is a happy medium somewhere… and I think that’s all most of us here are trying to get at… You don’t have to agree, that’s fine too.

 

[tmoniz]

There are people out there Suave that draw premium tags for whatever with zero points.
So you are telling me that the max point holders have the edge and that is what's unfair?

 

[suavegato]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tmoniz @ Jun 2 2008, 02:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

There are people out there Suave that draw premium tags for whatever with zero points.
So you are telling me that the max point holders have the edge and that is what's unfair?[/b]

it's not that they "have the edge"... they hold virtually all of the cards! I believe max points holders should have an edge, on that we agree… But I disagree that they should be allotted 90% of all of the tags.

Please don't take this the wrong way, this is a serious question, not meant to be insulting, I apologize in advance if it offends you. Do you understand how the Ca draw system works? I only ask because it seems as if you don't or perhaps you are being purposely obtuse? I don't know which? No one here has said that everyone should have an equal chance at the tags… All we are saying is that in it’s present form, max point holders and ONLY max point holders have 90% of the tags allotted to them and the door to add anymore max point holders is virtually sealed shut, for the foreseeable future at least.

So as it is right now, if you aren’t already a max point holder, you stand virtually zero chance at a tag (for Tule Bull, sheep, antelope etc.) in your lifetime… So the only ones who have a legit shot are those who already started in 2002. It’s a great system for them but sucks for everyone else! Not to mention, I’d like to see how someone who is a max point holder would feel if his app got lost in the mail, etc. Now he’s thrown right in with the rest of the masses and has now virtually worthless sheep, elk, ant. Points…

There is a happy medium somewhere that rewards hunters who consistently put in for those hunts but doesn’t shut out all others who missed a year, or want to start building up points etc. That’s all I’m saying…

 

[bpnclark]

Tmoniz. I agree with Suavegato. The system is not right not if it doesn’t allow people to catch up in the future. Right know I don’t see or hear anything from the DF&G saying anything about this. Even the guys that work for DF&G won’t say anything here. I have seen their names at the bottom (so they are reading all of this) but none are saying anything.

Are there people that draw tags with no points, absolutely. I personally have never met a person that has drawn an Elk, Antelope or Sheep tag. I have max points, my family has max points and a lot of my friends have max points and we haven’t drawn anything (that’s why we go out of state). I’m not “whining” about this because I know there are not a lot of these animals to hunt in CA. So I put in my app and I wait.

I have a real good friend that started hunting with me a few years ago. He has 2 points. I will never put in with him for any tag because he will hurt my chances. And if this system is still the way it is, he will never catch up.

 

[tmoniz]

Somebody explain to me what Max Points are.
I have 6 for Deer.
5 for Elk.
5 for Sheep.
And 4 for Antelope.
I bought a point for everything but Sheep.
(It's much closer to home and more doable than the others.)

And Suave explain how the draw works.

I had 5 points for deer last year. Put in for G3 and got zero tag.

 

[bpnclark]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tmoniz @ Jun 2 2008, 02:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

I have 6 for Deer.
5 for Elk.
5 for Sheep.
And 4 for Antelope.[/b]

You have max points for a Deer tag only.

Good luck catching up on every other animal (especially an Antelope). If the system stays the way it has for the last 6 years, you will never have max points for anything other than a deer tag.

Even with max points its hard to draw but it’s a lot harder with even one point down. So that basically means you will probably never hunt a sheep or antelope in CA in your lifetime (unless you draw the 1/1000 tag).

 

[tmoniz]

Yes but somebody tell me what Max Points actually is. A number.
I bought a point for deer this year.
So that puts me to 7?

I know people who have drawn Sheep with Zero.

 

[tmoniz]

Last year also there was a guy that drew G3 with zero points.

 

[bpnclark]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tmoniz @ Jun 2 2008, 03:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

Yes but somebody tell me what Max Points actually is. A number.
I bought a point for deer this year.
So that puts me to 7?

I know people who have drawn Sheep with Zero.[/b]

Maybe someone else needs to explain it to you. Max is 6. That is the largest amount of points you can have for this year. You only have 6 (max) on deer for this year. You can only get one point (per animal) per year. If you put in for the tag and don’t get drawn, you get a point or you can just buy a point. You can’t do both or buy more than one point per animal per year.

Everyone with 6 points (that is max) is put into one group. That group gets the large % of tags. The rest of the % of tags go to everyone else.

Say there is 4 tags available on a hunt. 3 of the tags will go to the people with the max points. 1 tag is available to everyone else that doesn’t have max points (that’s where the 1/1000 draw comes in, because that is the probably the number of people that are going for the same tag).

Deer tags are easier to draw because there are more (a lot more) tags to draw from (the 1/1000 tag becomes something like 25/250). And yes, every year in almost every area for every animal a tag is drawn by someone that has no points or very few. It’s like the guy that wins the 35 million on playing the lottery on his first time.

 

[DFGELK]

I hear what you are saying and the draw system is out of my hands, just no real way to get over the fact that over 26,000 people applied for around 300 elk tags last year. No one system is going to make everyone happy and changing the system is not going to increase the number of tags available. A bonus point system changes the odds and gives those with less than max points a better chance, while at the same time decreases the odds for those with max points.

As an example for the Marble Mountains with max points and a shot at the 30 (40 tags total or 75% go to max points) tags you have a 5% chance of drawing the tag. The system now does not distinguish between other point totals so other than max points you have a 0.49% of getting one of the 10 tags remaining. The way I understand the draw is even max point people have a chance at the 10 (25%) tags remaining that goes to the whole group.

With a bonus point system based on one random number per point it boils down to something like this (see below). I made some assumptions about the # of people with points other than max and divided it up equally and added a couple to the 0 and 1 point holders to make it meet the total. With bonus points you have one more chance above the points you currently have, so with 0 points you still have one chance or one random number. Some states square or cube their points to give greater weight to the higher point holders. This example does not do that.

I have a feeling the spacing will get messed up once posted.

Total Apps Max Point Applicants 4 pts applicants 3 pts applicants 2 pts applicants 1 pts applicants 0 pts applicants
2058 596 292 292 292 293 293
% chance 5 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49
# applicants 3576 1460 1168 1460 586 293 8543 Total random #’s
% chance 2.809318 2.341098 1.872878 1.404659 0.936439 0.46822
# of random #’s 6 5 4 3 2 1
So divide the total number of tags by the total number of random #’s i.e 40/8543 then you multiple this by 100 to get a percent then you multiple that by the number of chances (random numbers) you have based on bonus points.

So you have a 2.8% chance with max points, followed by 2.3% with 4 points, 1.87% with 3 pts, 1.4% with 2 points, 0.9% with 1 point, and 0.47.

Take the example of a zone with 5 tags La Panza period 1 bull.

Total tags Max Pt tags Random tags Total Apps Max Point apps 4 pts apps 3 pts apps 2 pts apps 1 pts apps 0 pts apps Total
5 4 1 296 100 39 39 39 39 40 296
Current % chance 4 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34
Total # chances 600 195 156 117 78 40 1186
% chance drawn 2.529511 2.107926 1.686341 1.264755 0.84317 0.421585
# of random #’s 6 5 4 3 2For 1
for the above example you have 4% chance currently with max pts and then a 0.34% otherwise.

Here is a breakdown of how North Dakota does it, for every bonus point you get they double it up to three points. So with two bonus points you get additional chances plus the current app for a total of 5 points. With 4 and above points they cube the points plus your chance for that application. I may be off slightly somewhere and please correct my math if it is wrong, I by no means double checked the calculations or my assumptions. But in a nutshell it should give you an idea of % chance under their type of system. Again the two examples are Marble Mountain and La Panza bull.

Total Max Pt Random Total Apps Max Point 4 pts 3 pts 2 pts 1 pts 0 pts
40 30 10 2058 596.00 292.00 292.00 292.00 293.00 293.00 2058
Current % chance 5.03 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49
# chances 75096 18980 2044 1460 879 293 98752
New % chance 5.06 2.59 0.24 0.16 0.08 0.04
125 64 6 4 2 1
For this example of the Marbles with the cubing system max points have a 5.06% chance followed by 2.59%, 0.24%, 0.16%, 0.08% chance with zero points

Total Max Pt Random Total Apps Max Point 4 pts 3 pts 2 pts 1 pts 0 pts
5 4 1 296 100 39 39 39 39 40 296
Current % chance 4.00 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34
# chances 12600 2535 273 195 117 40 15760
New % chance 3.97 2.03 0.19 0.13 0.06 0.03
125 64 6 4 2 1

This example has a 3.97% chance (max pt) to 2.03%, 0.19%. 0.13%, 0.06%, 0.03% with zero points

You can see max point holders do not really change their chance of getting a tag and it gives the those with 4 points a much better chance but actually lowers the chance with anybody with 3 points or less and new people practically have no chance at all.

Again my math may be off as I did this in a hurry but it should give you an idea. Also just to clarify elk and antelope are split 75/25 between max points and random.


Joe

 

[suavegato]

here is the way the current system works as best as I understand it: (others please correct me if there is an error?)
the point system started in 2002, so in order to have "max points" one would have to have started collecting points (whether from unsuccessful draws or from just buying the 1 point per year per species) and would have also had to have done so every year since then. “Max points” changes every year… in 2003 “max points was 1, in 2004 it was 2, etc. So for example, I got an elk point in 2002, 2003 etc. all the way through 2007. that is 6 total points. That is the “max points” that ANYONE CAN CURRENTLY HAVE. “Max” meaning maximum. No one can have anymore points (right now) than 6 for Elk, sheep & Antelope. Now, everyone who gets another point this year, will then have 7 and so 7 will be the “max points” for next year’s draw and so on…

As it stands right now, 90% of the tags are allotted to “Max points” holders, the other 10% are allotted to not only the rest of the population but also the max point holders who are unsuccessful for their first choice as well. I.E. Say I put in for hunt XYZ this year and have 6 points. Hunt XYZ has a total tag quota of 10. 9 of those tags are allotted to those with max points, 1 is allotted to everyone else, but… The 9 max point tags drawing is done first. Say 100 people put in with max points for those 9 tags. The applicants are assigned a random number, the tags are drawn and 9 people are successful. So that now leaves 91 “unsuccessful” max point applicants for Hunt XYZ. There is still 1 tag left though that was allotted for non-max point applicants. Now, all of those 91 “unsuccessful applicants” and ALL of the others who put in for hunt XYZ who DID NOT have max points, let’s say 1,000 people, now all get a shot at that 1 last tag…

So, using this example, 100 people (max point holders) got a shot at 9 tags. That’s a 9% chance of getting drawn. Then, 1,091 non-max point applicants get a shot at 1 tag, that’s a .091% chance… less than a tenth of 1 percent or basically ZERO! So, yes, someone can and does get drawn with 0 – 1 less than max points every year, but it’s ONLY 10% of the total tags and your chances are astronomical.

This system works relatively well for hunts that have larger tag quotas, say 100 or more but the problem is that on hunts with much fewer tags, say only 4 tags. Since 4 can’t be split 90 – 10, the system says that at least 1 tag must go into the non-max point category. So now 3 tags from a 4 tag hunt are allotted to Max point applicants and 1 goes to all others. Since there are (I’m assuming) Tens of thousands of Max point holders for Elk, sheep, & antelope, this current system only culls out 3 a year so will NEVER allow for anyone who isn’t already a Max point holder (started in 2002 and every year since) to get drawn.

Say 100 max point holders apply every year for a sheep hunt that has 3 tags issued per year. 2 tags go to the max point holders, 1 to everyone else. You chances of getting that “everyone else tag” are astronomical at best. True, someone will get it, every time but someone also wins the lottery every time too… the odds are mind boggling… But, this also means that if 100 max point applicants apply for that sheep hunt every year, it will take 50 years just for them to cull out all of the max point applicants for that hunt! But, even then it probably won’t happen, cuz many people just buy points and “stock pile” them. As soon as they see the odds increasing in one hunt or another, they will put in for it, thus increasing the number of max point applicants and the cycle repeats…

If there are any DFG people reading this who have stats on just how many Ca hunters have max points for Elk, Sheep & Antelope, it wouldn’t be too hard to do the math… Number of max point hunters for each species divided by number of tags for each species each year would give a pretty close estimate… Also factor in the out of state hunters who buy points? I’m guessing the math would spook us all! Might be 100+ years or more before max points holders have cycled even 1 point!

Anyway, point here being. It’s not a perfect system, there probably is no “perfect system” but this current system is flawed and has room for improvement… IMHO.

If the number of “max points” was caped at some point, just say 10 for arguments sake, that would solve a lot of the issues…
<blockquote>A) you buddy who is 2 or 3 points behind you could catch up finally!
B) People who are reasonably persistent and put in year after year are allowed an equal shot at the 90% of tags, and NOT just the people who started in 2002.</blockquote>

Bottom line, as it stands right now, those who were smart enough, lucky enough, had enough foresight, whatever you want to call it, who have put in since 2002, have 90% of the market cornered, the rest are left to vie for the remaining 10% and that just seems skewed to me…

 

[suavegato]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (DFGELK @ Jun 2 2008, 03:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

I hear what you are saying and the draw system is out of my hands, just no real way to get over the fact that over 26,000 people applied for around 300 elk tags last year. No one system is going to make everyone happy and changing the system is not going to increase the number of tags available. A bonus point system changes the odds and gives those with less than max points a better chance, while at the same time decreases the odds for those with max points.

As an example for the Marble Mountains with max points and a shot at the 30 (40 tags total or 75% go to max points) tags you have a 5% chance of drawing the tag. The system now does not distinguish between other point totals so other than max points you have a 0.49% of getting one of the 10 tags remaining. The way I understand the draw is even max point people have a chance at the 10 (25%) tags remaining that goes to the whole group.

With a bonus point system based on one random number per point it boils down to something like this (see below). I made some assumptions about the # of people with points other than max and divided it up equally and added a couple to the 0 and 1 point holders to make it meet the total. With bonus points you have one more chance above the points you currently have, so with 0 points you still have one chance or one random number. Some states square or cube their points to give greater weight to the higher point holders. This example does not do that.

I have a feeling the spacing will get messed up once posted.

Total Apps Max Point Applicants 4 pts applicants 3 pts applicants 2 pts applicants 1 pts applicants 0 pts applicants
2058 596 292 292 292 293 293
% chance 5 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49
# applicants 3576 1460 1168 1460 586 293 8543 Total random #’s
% chance 2.809318 2.341098 1.872878 1.404659 0.936439 0.46822
# of random #’s 6 5 4 3 2 1
So divide the total number of tags by the total number of random #’s i.e 40/8543 then you multiple this by 100 to get a percent then you multiple that by the number of chances (random numbers) you have based on bonus points.

So you have a 2.8% chance with max points, followed by 2.3% with 4 points, 1.87% with 3 pts, 1.4% with 2 points, 0.9% with 1 point, and 0.47.

Take the example of a zone with 5 tags La Panza period 1 bull.

Total tags Max Pt tags Random tags Total Apps Max Point apps 4 pts apps 3 pts apps 2 pts apps 1 pts apps 0 pts apps Total
5 4 1 296 100 39 39 39 39 40 296
Current % chance 4 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34
Total # chances 600 195 156 117 78 40 1186
% chance drawn 2.529511 2.107926 1.686341 1.264755 0.84317 0.421585
# of random #’s 6 5 4 3 2For 1
for the above example you have 4% chance currently with max pts and then a 0.34% otherwise.

Here is a breakdown of how North Dakota does it, for every bonus point you get they double it up to three points. So with two bonus points you get additional chances plus the current app for a total of 5 points. With 4 and above points they cube the points plus your chance for that application. I may be off slightly somewhere and please correct my math if it is wrong, I by no means double checked the calculations or my assumptions. But in a nutshell it should give you an idea of % chance under their type of system. Again the two examples are Marble Mountain and La Panza bull.

Total Max Pt Random Total Apps Max Point 4 pts 3 pts 2 pts 1 pts 0 pts
40 30 10 2058 596.00 292.00 292.00 292.00 293.00 293.00 2058
Current % chance 5.03 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49
# chances 75096 18980 2044 1460 879 293 98752
New % chance 5.06 2.59 0.24 0.16 0.08 0.04
125 64 6 4 2 1
For this example of the Marbles with the cubing system max points have a 5.06% chance followed by 2.59%, 0.24%, 0.16%, 0.08% chance with zero points

Total Max Pt Random Total Apps Max Point 4 pts 3 pts 2 pts 1 pts 0 pts
5 4 1 296 100 39 39 39 39 40 296
Current % chance 4.00 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34
# chances 12600 2535 273 195 117 40 15760
New % chance 3.97 2.03 0.19 0.13 0.06 0.03
125 64 6 4 2 1

This example has a 3.97% chance (max pt) to 2.03%, 0.19%. 0.13%, 0.06%, 0.03% with zero points

You can see max point holders do not really change their chance of getting a tag and it gives the those with 4 points a much better chance but actually lowers the chance with anybody with 3 points or less and new people practically have no chance at all.

Again my math may be off as I did this in a hurry but it should give you an idea. Also just to clarify elk and antelope are split 75/25 between max points and random.


Joe[/b]

Hey Joe,
that is some good, interesting info. thank you for taking the time… I kinda like that idea of the bonus point system… If I’m reading the numbers right, it will increase your chances every year you apply and get points but the more points you get, the more the “factor” is squared, cubed etc… Hmmm, seems like a good system. That would get rid of the problem of ONLY those who started in 2002 getting a shot at the 90% of the tags, which the biggest problem I have with the current system. That bonus point system allows eliminates another “flaw” in that there are basically only max point people and all others… no middle ground. Max point people have the keys to the city, and there is no distinction between all others whether they have 5 points or 1, they are considered “all others”… With the bonus point system you described, seems like you could still build up a reasonable chance at some tags, even if you didn’t START in 2002, as long as you do stick with it for a ½ dozen years or so… that seems much more equitable to me…

Good stuff! Do you happen to know if the DFG ever considers any changes to the current system? If so, when & how do they take input?

Thanks,

 

[jackrabbit]

when you do the math, it does seem kinda funny in a way --- 75% of the sheep, antelope, and bull elk hunts are likely to be GERIATRIC HUNTS right? I'll be one of those if I get real lucky early on -- except for elk -- I'll take a tasty cow elk soon!!!

 

[DFGELK]

For 2007 there were 7842 max point applicants for around 300 elk tags so roughly 26 years to clear tags but in reality more people are dropping out than max tag applicants. For 2006 there were 8456
max point applicants for elk, for 2005 there were 9671 max point applicants. So in 3 years time you lost 1825 max point applicants for under 900 tags (which all did not go to max point applicants, but close to 75% did). In a nutshell you are losing 300 or so max point applicants above the tag quota each year. At the current rate (and I think the amount of people dropping out will increase) in 13 years you will clear the ranks.


Joe

 

[DFGELK]

Again, want to clarify for elk and antelope it is a 75% to max points and 25% to random not 90/10 like it is for deer.

Thanks

Joe

You can ask for a change to the Fish and Game Commission, they are the regulating authority. Please correct me if I am wrong, even if I am they will forward it to the ones in charge (probably send it to me, just kidding)

 

[suavegato]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (DFGELK @ Jun 2 2008, 04:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

For 2007 there were 7842 max point applicants for around 300 elk tags so roughly 26 years to clear tags but in reality more people are dropping out than max tag applicants. For 2006 there were 8456
max point applicants for elk, for 2005 there were 9671 max point applicants. So in 3 years time you lost 1825 max point applicants for under 900 tags (which all did not go to max point applicants, but close to 75% did). In a nutshell you are losing 300 or so max point applicants above the tag quota each year. At the current rate (and I think the amount of people dropping out will increase) in 13 years you will clear the ranks.


Joe[/b]

Great info. & data, thanks again! So it looks like it may not be as bad it seems for Elk but... Those numbers are for whole numbers, Bull hunts only make up a small percentage of the total elk hunts right? 10%? 20% maybe? So I wonder if that "rough math" will hold true for the bull hunts? 26 years is still a damn long time to wait, I've been putting since 2002 and will likely be too old to hunt in 26 years...

I know this is the Elk forum but do you happen to have that data for the Antelope & sheep as well? I'd guess that time frame may be even longer...?

thanks for the info. & clarification on the 90/10 75/25 splits...

 

[tmoniz]

How about this.
You draw a G Zone Deer tag, an Elk, Sheep and Antelope Tag.
It's a Lifetime Tag. You draw it. It matters not whether you fill that tag or not. And then you are done.

 

[bpnclark]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tmoniz @ Jun 2 2008, 05:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div>

How about this.
You draw a G Zone Deer tag, an Elk, Sheep and Antelope Tag.
It's a Lifetime Tag. You draw it. It matters not whether you fill that tag or not. And then you are done.[/b]

I thought everything was fine and we should just leave it alone?

 

[tmoniz]

It was an idea Bpn that a friend of mine mentioned a while back. I thought it was interesting.
I'm perfectly good with the way it is.

 

[bpnclark]

Can you imagine drawing the tag of a lifetime (lets say Grizzly Island Tule Bull). Right before opening day (on lets say less than a two week hunt) you get in car accident. You’re in the hospital with two broken legs. So what happens? You loose the chance forever? You would have to be the luckiest and unluckiest guy in the world.

Weather doesn’t play that big of a roll (like it does in some other states) but could you imagine drawing a tag of a lifetime and the weather is 85 degrees when there is suppose to be snow on the ground. The animal you have a tag for is in another county (and out of your zone) and there is nothing you can do about it.

Things happen and I feel you should go back to 0 and start over again instead of loosing out. More than likely you will never draw the tag again anyways.