CA points question

[dlovato]

There are 2 easy fixes that I can see being made - just a "modification" - some fine tuning to the system in place. Either one, or both could be implemented.

Fix #1 - put a MAX on the number of points you can accrue - say 10 points. Thus anyone who's been trying for 10 years unsuccessfully get put into the same pool. i.e. Nobody gets an 11th point.

Fix #2 - For each point you have, your name goes in the "drawing hat" that many times. 2 points - your name goes in 2 times, 8 points, your name goes in 8 times - thus you get better odds every year you don't draw, but anyone with less than the max still has a reasonable shot at being drawn in the preference portion.

The current system works as is for low demand hunts - but any of the high demand hunts it's completely broken (i.e. Some of the G's, a couple X's, all the "bull elk" hunts, "antelope", and of course sheep. Unless you started in the drawing EXACTLY in 2002, you will never have reasonable odds at any of them. This disenfranchises youth, and new hunters (anyone who started hunting after 2002) as it stands. Even if you turned 12 in 2003 (using the youth example, and put in for the drawing religiously ever since - you will always be 1 point behind, and the preference pool will always go to the elite group that started exactly in 2002 - for some hunts, it will be that way for the kids entire life - they will never move to the top of the list - 20, 30, even 50 years from now, the same 2002 group will still be getting the Max Point benefit of starting exactly in 2002 - and that kid that started in 2003 might as well have 0 points, even if he's now 72 years old (with 60 points - there will still be a group (assuming they haven't all died off) with one point more.

That's the problem - it's fixable - but DFG/F&GC needs to realize that there is a "real" problem here - and fix it.

- Darryl

 

[dlovato]

BTW - here's a perfect illustration of the problem. Lets use the hypothetical kid who turned 12 (and started putting in for tags in 2003 vs 2002 when he "couldn't - wasn't old enough) - I'll use elk since this is the "elk" forum)

Last year (2008) - he had 5 pts going into the draw (some people had 6 or parties with 5.5)... Thus, even though he's been trying for 6 years, he might as well have had zero points for any of these bull hunts....

OK - but here's how long it will take him to "catch up" (for those with something greater than 5) to eventually get their tag, so that the hypothetical 12 year old in 2003 finally gets a shot at the preference point portion. This doesn't even take into consideration the 916 people/parties that put in for point only - but it assumes people who did put in, keep putting in for the same hunt (with roughly same # tags available each year) until they draw out for it - an assumption that has to be made - it also doesn't take into account how many hunters "give up" and/or "die" and/or miss the drawing application deadline. Regardless the numbers are "telling" of the problem.

What #pref tags # with >5 points # years before 2003 group starts getting drawn
-------------------------- --------------- ------------------ -------------------------------------------------------
Siskiyou either sex 12 193 16 years
Klamath Bull 8 168 21 years
Cache Creek P1 1 222 222 years
Big Lagoon either sex 8 60 8 years
NE Cal either sex 8 970 121 years
NE Cal archery 7 146 20 years
Del Norte Bull 4 490 122 years
Marble Mtns Either Sex 30 469 16 years
LaPanza P1 bull 4 140 35 years
LaPanza P2 bull 5 88 17 years
Owens Vly archery 4 214 54 years
Grizzly Island P2 Bull 1 935 935 years
FHL P3 Bull 6 297 50 years
FHL Archery 2 48 24 years
East park P1 Bull 1 268 268 years
Tinemaha P3 Bull 1 205 205 years
Tinemaha P5 Bull 1 192 192 years
NW CA either sex 15 157 10 years
Lone Pine P2 Bull 1 214 214 years
San Luis Either Sex 2 57 28 years

Thus - even if you are JUST one point behind the "maximum" (you will either have to wait a VERY long time to get drawn in the preference portion of the draw - or not even live long enough). You will have the same odds as someone with Zero points for the rest of your life in most cases. Only the 2002 group will get the reasonable odds for these hunts - God forbid you have 4 points (started in 2004) - you can pretty much double the # of years it will take before you are treated as though triple the time if you started putting in for the drawing on 2005, etc...

Essentially - one group is going to get the bulk of the tags until they quit hunting or die. The points don't really matter at all for anyone who started hunting anytime after 2002. You are either in the 2002 group - or you are not. if not, your odds are terrible (smaller number of tags to random portion, and roughly 6x as many hunters trying to get the random tag). If you started hunting this year as a 12 year old, you can put in the rest of your life and you will probably NEVER get to the point that you have enough points to be in the preference section unless you outlive everyone else - I can see it now - 50 years from now, the only people drawing the points portion will be 90+ year old guys/gals.

 

[dlovato]

One last example (I randomly picked a couple elk hunts) - here's the difference between having max points (started exactly in 2002), and anyone who has 1 pt less (all treated the same) - i.e. started in 2003 or later...

2008 drawing...
2002 group (6 points) - Everyone else (0 to 5.5 pts)
------------------------ ----------------------------------------
12/179 (6.70%) 3/740 (0.41%) (Siskiyou either sex)
30/443 (6.77%) 10/1829 (0.55%) (Marble Mtns either sex)
8/158 (5.06%) 2/530 (0.37%) (Klamath Bull)

The 2002 group has roughly 10x+ greater odds than even the 2003 group of drawing out. And it will always remain that way with the current system (actually the 2002 group will get better odds each year, as they slowly continue to draw out), and the non/after-2002 group will stay the same assuming the total # of hunters putting in each year doesn't change. Also to be technically correct, the 2002 group's odd is the sum of the pref drawing and they are also in the random drawing if they don't draw in the preference part... They sort of get 2 shots at it so to speak.

I hope this clearly indicated the "problem". Doing either or both of the proposed fixes I put forth in the post above will fix this - capping the points at say 10 - so people can "catch up", and/or having each year = one extra "entry" into the drawing. This is really only a problem where demand is so far beyond the supply of tags - but the either fix wouldn't really effect the lower demand hunts - it could be applied across the board. I'm sure the people who would be against this are all at "Max Points" - but it is a lot more fair to youth and new hunters who's odds are so far below the "exactly in 2002" group that they'll never get a reasonable shot at the high demand hunts.

p.s. Data from here:

http://www.dfg.ca.gov/licensing/pdffiles/2008EASChart.pdf

 

[One Track]

I have news for you all.

The odds will change dramatically after I draw my archery bull tag. C'mon.

 

[bobby7321]

a nevada system with waiting periods for premium tags...

 

[JABGARDNV]

Fix #2 - For each point you have, your name goes in the "drawing hat" that many times. 2 points - your name goes in 2 times, 8 points, your name goes in 8 times - thus you get better odds every year you don't draw, but anyone with less than the max still has a reasonable shot at being drawn in the preference portion.

- Darryl[/quote]


That is how Nevadas system works most of us here love it. plus you can elect to just buy a point :mooning:

 

[Sodhunter]

One thing not mentioned is that although some one like my second son who turned 12 after the point system started will not draw a tag in the point draw, he can still get lucky in the non-point draw. Also, even though he may be 50 at the time, if he is persistent, his odds get better every year. Also, eventually every one's odds are in direct proportion to how many years they have been applying. Odds have always been that you will not get one of these tags. They still are. At least now the majority of tags will go to the people that have been applying the longest. That is fair. A small amount will go to people that just get lucky, thus keeping us excited every draw. I personally think it is fair that someone applying for 30 years has a better chance to get a tag than someone applying for 15 years. Making the limit of points 2, 5, 10, 15 or 20, only reduces the effect of the preferential point system for those applying the longest. Just make sure to keep a small percentage open for everyone and get a point every year you apply unsuccessfully. Fairest distribution possible. JMHO

 

[dlovato]

One thing not mentioned is that although some one like my second son who turned 12 after the point system started will not draw a tag in the point draw, he can still get lucky in the non-point draw. Also, even though he may be 50 at the time, if he is persistent, his odds get better every year. Also, eventually every one's odds are in direct proportion to how many years they have been applying. Odds have always been that you will not get one of these tags. They still are. At least now the majority of tags will go to the people that have been applying the longest. That is fair. A small amount will go to people that just get lucky, thus keeping us excited every draw. I personally think it is fair that someone applying for 30 years has a better chance to get a tag than someone applying for 15 years. Making the limit of points 2, 5, 10, 15 or 20, only reduces the effect of the preferential point system for those applying the longest. Just make sure to keep a small percentage open for everyone and get a point every year you apply unsuccessfully. Fairest distribution possible. JMHO

If that's how it actually worked, then I'd agree with you. Unfortunately, that isn't how it works for the high demand tags. The people who started exactly in 2002 (first year) will get all the tags issued in our lifetime. Anyone in 2003 or later will never get any chance other than the random portion - regardless of how many years they put in - zero or 50 years - unless, of course, the 2002 group all die off or quit hunting. By putting the 10 year/point maximum point cap, the ultra high demand tags (after 10 years of trying) essentially becomes a lottery - which is how it should be for those hunts.

 

[Sodhunter]

If that's how it actually worked, then I'd agree with you. Unfortunately, that isn't how it works for the high demand tags. The people who started exactly in 2002 (first year) will get all the tags issued in our lifetime. Anyone in 2003 or later will never get any chance other than the random portion - regardless of how many years they put in - zero or 50 years - unless, of course, the 2002 group all die off or quit hunting. By putting the 10 year/point maximum point cap, the ultra high demand tags (after 10 years of trying) essentially becomes a lottery - which is how it should be for those hunts.

I respectfully disagree. That IS how it works. Everyone has a small chance at the random drawing. The people that have been putting in since 2002 have a better chance because, yes, they will get the point drawing tags. Remember, these people didn't all just start applying in 2002. Many have been applying for 30 or more years previous to that. They should have a better chance than those starting after 2002. Why should someone like my son have the same chance as someone who has been applying 30 years longer than him. Granted, someone like my first son who started hunting a couple years before the point system started lucked out. They are in the same boat as me who has been applying for 20 years. Also, because many of max point hunters have been applying for 30 or more years, in 20 years those 2002 first time hunters like my son will closer than you think to drawing a tag. I can not think of fairer system. Just keep the small percentage of random no points tags in the mix and it is as good as you can get. JMHO.