NonResident Nevada Draw Odds

[mccoycoffee]

Hello all,

Can anyone tell me how to figure the actual odds of getting an elk tag in Nevada? I'm new to the process, and all I can find is the number of first choice applicants per unit (not the number of draw chances each applicant has to draw based on bonus points). I called to get info, one person told me that one bonus point is worth 7 chances; another told me that the number of bonus points is squared to determine the amount of chances in the draw. Any help or insight? I've put in for Utah, New Mexico and Wyoming so far.

Brian

 

[wmidbrook]

Odds are really, really long for drawing any bull elk tag in NV.

In a nutshell, I think it's your (number of bonus points) + 1. Take that number and square it. That's the number of 'chances' you have in the barrel to be to be first in line. You keep your best number.

They line everyone up in the list...best number to worse number. If any of your choices are unfilled when your number is up, that's the tag you get.

To figure out your draw odds.

Square the max point pool number and multiply it by the number of applicants.

Hunt XYZ - 2 NR tags
10 point pool - 10 applicants = (10 squared) x 10 = 1,000 chances
9 point pool - 20 applicants = (9 squared) x 20 = 1,800 chances
8 point pool - 40 applicants = (8 squared) x 40 = 2560 chances
7 point pool - 100 applicants = (7 squared) x 100 = 4900
6 - 800 = (36) x 800 = 28800
5 - 850 = 25 x 850 = 21250
4 - 950 = 16 x 950 = 15200
3 - 1000 = 9 x 1000 = 9000
2 - 1500 = 4 x 1500 = 6000
1 - 2000 = 1 x 2000 = 2000

Add up the column on the far right (all the point totals) for a grand total of 77210 chances in the barrel.

If you've got 10 points, you have 100 chances of the 77,210 chances in the barrel. Only the top 2 will get tags....so, 100/77,210 + 100/77,210 = about 0.3% chance...so 1 in 300 chance of drawing.

But, considering there were over 6,000 applicants, a 1 in 300 chance is not bad.

If you only had 1 point, you'd have a 1/77,210 + 1/77,210 chance of drawing.....1 in 37,500


But, let's say that there are about 600 applicants for the bull elk hunt--divide all the applicants/point pool by ten. You end up with
a 1 in 30 chance of drawing with 10 points, and a 1 in 3,750 chance of drawing with 1 point.

 

[montana13]

Nice work wmidbrook! You can't get a better explanation than that.

 

[azbiggame]

now that's an "Answer"

Odds ??? this is Nevada --- Can't draw if You don't APPLY,but of the states mentioned,I'd say Your best "ODDS" are in New Mexico to draw this FALL

 

[mccoycoffee]

Just saw the Nevada Elk pics posted. I'm in!

 

[sagebrush]

There's just one problem with that explanation. That's not exactly how the draw works. Everyone gets only one chance in the draw. A person with 10 points gets 101 randomly generated numbers and only the lowest one goes into the draw. Granted, you have 100 more chances at a low number than the person with zero points, but only one guy is going to get number 1, and a lot of guys are going to get numbers over 900,000. If your lowest number is a high one, you will never draw. That's why a guy with 10 points can miss out on a tag while a guy with zero can draw. I still think it's the best draw system of them all. The more you try the better chance you have, but you still have a good chance to hunt without max points.

 

[wmidbrook]

I explained the odds, not the draw process.

It doesn't matter if they went down all the list of best randomly generated numbers list to award tags to or if they ranked everybody first by their top number----both ways yield the same result.

The only mistake in my example was that the draw odds are really 100/77,210 + 100/77,209 (not 100/77,210) because 1 of those numbers got the first tag.

Really, at least more & more people are starting to realize that there's a greater chance of dieing before drawing some of the super hunts 'cause the hunts' draw odds are so slim--that might change their draw strategies in some states like in CO where they are offering a 1 time point banking this year.

There are a couple of elk hunts in CA where the odds are slimmer than 1 in 100...I figure I've got a good 30 - 40 years worth of big game hunting left in me God willing....odds are I will die before drawing that tag....there are many NV elk hunts that are the same way unfortunately...But, I sure hope to draw a couple of super tags in one state or another before it's my time to pass on...lol.

 

[DAWG]

The monkey wrench in figuring NV draw odds is that they show all the first choice applicants, plus those who actually draw at each point level. They give you your first available of five choices. You have no way of figuring how many applied and were unsucessful on other than the first choice. Whatever you figure, draw odds are probabally much less, but impossible to determine from the information they give you on the website. But if you do not apply, the odds are zero for sure.

 

[mccoycoffee]

"Really, at least more & more people are starting to realize that there's a greater chance of dieing before drawing some of the super hunts 'cause the hunts' draw odds are so slim--that might change their draw strategies in some states like in CO where they are offering a 1 time point banking this year."

Can you please explain the CO strategy?

 

[Kentuck]

I believe that if you read the reg package from NV it gives you the odds of drawing a tag.

 

[WapitiBob]

sheesh, I got my pref point report from AZ yesterday. Has total apps by point summary.
I looked at it, quickly added the totals..................then chucked it.

I'll be 500 years old before I could get a tag.