As a wildlife biologist, I know the rut is triggered by a combination of day-length AND temperatures in deer (I think night temps are more important but don't quote me). I presume elk would be similar but not identical. I've heard elk bugle in July in California (Tule Elk) and seen the rut over by mid-September. Here in Washington, we had elk bugling in late October, got a hot spell and they stopped two years ago.
There probably is a genetic component that varies from area to area, also.
Incidently, we've changed the voices of elk through hunting. By searching out macho bulls, we've artificially selected for big bulls with "weenie" bull voices. I've seen some very deep sounding spikes and some big bulls with very high-pitched voices.
If I can't hunt the last week of bow season in Colorado which is in Late Sept., I usually try to go around the 1st full moon of the season. It seem that where I hunt, the Rag-horns go nuts for a few days around that early season full moon clear into mid-morning. I guess their trying out their new found voices....hronk
Don't know why it comes early or late but another phenomenon I have encountered many times is when the weather turns from dry to rain. I have went from a day where the elk are bugling in all directions to rain the next day and everything is quiet.
Our theory is that when it is dry the hot cows sent is collecting everywhere and the more these bulls get the sent the more excited they get. Once it starts raining the sent gets washed away.
One thing that I've noticed is that in some areas you'll have hot and heavy bugling @ night that coincides with the amount of moonlight. The bulls woke me up @ 2 a.m. the first night, 3 a.m. the second night and 4:00 a.m. the third night as the moonlight was stronger (directly overhead) at those times....so, that third early a.m., I bugled from in my tent and then trekked out in the dark to find them....lol.
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